Week 1: Lecture Slides

  • Backwards and Forwards Difference Equations

    • Stochastic Difference Equations

    • Linear and Non-Linear Models

    • The Solow Model as an Example

    • The Cagan Model as an Example

    • Eigenvalues

    • The Jordan Decomposition

    • An Application to the Solow Model

Week 3: Lecture Slides

  • Linear Rational Expectations Models Part 2

    • The QZ Decomposition

    • The Model with Variable Labor Supply

    • Using the Symbolic Logic Engine in MatLab

    • Using Gensys to Simulate Data

    • Using Gensys to Compute Solutions

    • Calibration

Week 5: Lecture Slides

  • The Overlapping Generations Model

    • The Two-Period Overlapping Generations Model

    • Two Types of Stationary Equilibria

    • Indeterminacy in the OLG Model

    • A Three-Period Example

    • The Perpetual Youth (Blanchard-Yaari) Model

    • The Model in Four Equations

Week 7: Lecture Slides

  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy

    • Money in General Equilibrium

    • Taylor Rules

    • Inflation

    • Fiscal Policy

    • The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

    • Expectations and the Belief Function

Week 9: Lecture Slides

  • Forecasting with the Kalman Filter

    • Linear Projection

    • Sequential linear projection

    • The Kalman Filter in four steps

    • An MA example

    • An AR(p) example

    • An RBC example

    • Matlab Code for Lecture 9 GenDatRbc Kfilter

Week 2: Lecture Slides

  • Linear Rational Expectations Models

    • The Blanchard-Kahn Conditions

    • Solving a LRE Model Step by Step

    • Deriving the Linearization Coefficients

    • The Solution Method: Backward and Forward Blocks

    • State Space Representations

    • The Lucas Critique

Week 4: Lecture Slides

  • General Equilibrium Theory

    • The Arrow Debreu Model

    • Debreu-Sonnenschein-Mantel theorem

    • Properties of Equilibria

    • The Welfare Theorems

    • Infinite horizon models

    • The Negishi Theorem

    • Implications for Macroeconomics

Week 6: Lecture Slides

  • Choice Under Uncertainty

    • Choice Under Risk: Arrow vs Debreu

    • Restrictions on Preferences

    • Restrictions on Markets

    • Sunspots

    • Dynamic Indeterminacy

    • Endogenous Business Cycles

Week 8: Lecture Slides

  • The New Keynesian Model

    • A brief history of thought

    • The Phillips Curve

    • Monopolistic Pricing

    • The RA New Classical Model

    • The New Keynesian Phillips Curve

    • The RA New Keynesian Model

Week 10: Lecture Slides

  • Estimation with the Kalman Filter

    • Maximum likelihood

    • Bayesian inference

    • Markov Chain Monte-Carlo

    • Markov Chains and Transition Kernels

    • The Metropolis Hastings Algorithm

    • Estimating models with Dynare

    • Dynare Code for Lecture 10 est

Links to New Edition of The Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (c)

These are part of a revision of the third edition of my book, The Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies. It is a work in process that I have released to students registered in my 2025 class, EC9A2, at the University of Warwick. Please DO NOT CIRCULATE.

  • Chapter 2: Linear Difference Equations: Part 1

  • Chapter 4: Gensys and the QZ Decomposition

  • Chapter 6: General Equilibrium Theory Under Certainty

  • Chapter 8: Infinite Horizon Economies and Overlapping Generations

  • Chapter 10: Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies in Macroeconomics

  • Chapter 12: Classical and Keynesian Models Compared

Problem Sets

Additional Reading