Week 1: Lecture Slides
Backwards and Forwards Difference Equations
Stochastic Difference Equations
Linear and Non-Linear Models
The Solow Model as an Example
The Cagan Model as an Example
Eigenvalues
The Jordan Decomposition
An Application to the Solow Model
Week 3: Lecture Slides
Linear Rational Expectations Models Part 2
The QZ Decomposition
The Model with Variable Labor Supply
Using the Symbolic Logic Engine in MatLab
Using Gensys to Simulate Data
Using Gensys to Compute Solutions
Calibration
Week 5: Lecture Slides
The Overlapping Generations Model
The Two-Period Overlapping Generations Model
Two Types of Stationary Equilibria
Indeterminacy in the OLG Model
A Three-Period Example
The Perpetual Youth (Blanchard-Yaari) Model
The Model in Four Equations
Week 7: Lecture Slides
Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Money in General Equilibrium
Taylor Rules
Inflation
Fiscal Policy
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Expectations and the Belief Function
Week 9: Lecture Slides
Week 2: Lecture Slides
Linear Rational Expectations Models
The Blanchard-Kahn Conditions
Solving a LRE Model Step by Step
Deriving the Linearization Coefficients
The Solution Method: Backward and Forward Blocks
State Space Representations
The Lucas Critique
Week 4: Lecture Slides
General Equilibrium Theory
The Arrow Debreu Model
Debreu-Sonnenschein-Mantel theorem
Properties of Equilibria
The Welfare Theorems
Infinite horizon models
The Negishi Theorem
Implications for Macroeconomics
Week 6: Lecture Slides
Choice Under Uncertainty
Choice Under Risk: Arrow vs Debreu
Restrictions on Preferences
Restrictions on Markets
Sunspots
Dynamic Indeterminacy
Endogenous Business Cycles
Week 8: Lecture Slides
The New Keynesian Model
A brief history of thought
The Phillips Curve
Monopolistic Pricing
The RA New Classical Model
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve
The RA New Keynesian Model
Week 10: Lecture Slides
Estimation with the Kalman Filter
Maximum likelihood
Bayesian inference
Markov Chain Monte-Carlo
Markov Chains and Transition Kernels
The Metropolis Hastings Algorithm
Estimating models with Dynare
Dynare Code for Lecture 10 est
Links to New Edition of The Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (c)
These are part of a revision of the third edition of my book, The Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies. It is a work in process that I have released to students registered in my 2025 class, EC9A2, at the University of Warwick. Please DO NOT CIRCULATE.
Chapter 2: Linear Difference Equations: Part 1
Chapter 4: Gensys and the QZ Decomposition
Chapter 6: General Equilibrium Theory Under Certainty
Chapter 8: Infinite Horizon Economies and Overlapping Generations
Chapter 10: Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies in Macroeconomics
Chapter 12: Classical and Keynesian Models Compared
Problem Sets
Problem Set 1: Due Friday January 10th in Class
Problem Set 2: Due Friday January 17th in Class
Problem Set 3: Due Friday January 24th in Class
Problem Set 4: Due Friday January 31st in Class
Problem Set 5: Due Friday February 7th in Class
Problem Set 6: Due Friday February 14th in Class ❤️
Problem Set 7: Due Friday February 21st in Class
Problem Set 8: Due Friday February 28th in Class: Matlab Code for Problem Set 8
Problem Set 9: Due Friday March 7th in Class
Additional Reading
The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Roger Farmer
The Solution of Linear Difference Equations Under Rational Expectations, Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 5 , 1980, Olivier Blanchard and Charles Kahn
Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy
Volume 1, 1976, Pages 19-46, Robert E. Lucas Jr.
Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models, Journal of Computational Economics, 20(1-2), 2001, p.1-20. Christopher A. Sims
Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review Fall 1986. Edward C. Prescott
Real Business Cycles and The High School Olympics, Roger Farmer blog
Notes on the Economics of Infinity, Karl Shell
Pure Exchange Equilibria of Dynamic Economic Models, David Gale
An exact consumption loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money, Paul Samuelson.
Comparative statics and perfect foresight in infinite horizon economies, Timothy Kehoe and David K. Levine 1985
Indeterminacy of relative prices in overlapping generations models, Timothy Kehoe and David K. Levine 1983
Monetary and Fiscal Policy when People have Finite Lives, Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk
Debt Deficits and Finite Horizons, Olivier Blanchard 1985
Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns Benhabib and Farmer
Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis Farmer and Guo
Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale, Yi Wen 1998
The Evolution of Endogenous Business Cycle Theory, Farmer 2014
Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory Clarida-Gali-Gertler 2000
Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements, John Muth 1961
Discretion versus Rules in Practice, John Taylor 1993
Of Money, David Hume
The Quantity Theory of Money, Milton Friedman
The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Auburn. W. Phillips
Staggered Prices in a Utility Maximizing Framework, Guillermo Calvo