Last updated on 04006/2019 Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve, joint with Giovanni Nicolò. Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)-Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post -war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We estimate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data density that is more than 30 log points higher than the NK alternative. Our findings also demonstrate that cross-country macroeconomic differences are well explained by the different shocks that hit each economy and by differences in the ways in which national central banks reacted to those shocks.
Last updated 01/12/2019. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Overlapping Generations Models, Joint with Pawel Zabczyk, of the IMF. We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) cannot be used to determine the price level uniquely in the overlapping generations (OLG) model. We provide two examples of OLG models, one with three 3-period lives and one with 62-period lives. Both examples are calibrated to an income profile chosen to match the life-cycle earnings process in U.S. data estimated by Guvenen et al. (2015). In both examples, there exist multiple steady-state equilibria. Our findings challenge established views about what constitutes a good combination of fiscal and monetary policies. As long as the primary deficit or the primary surplus is not too large, the fiscal authority can conduct policies that are unresponsive to endogenous changes in the level of its outstanding debt. Monetary and fiscal policy can both be active at the same time. The paper is also published as CEPR Discussion Paper 13432.
Last updated 04/13/2018. A Sunspot Based Theory of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Joint with Pawel Zabczyk, formerly of the Bank of England and now at the IMF. This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet with the goal of stabilizing economic activity. It evolved from and earlier single-authored paper "Qualitative Easing: How it Works and Why it Matters" and was written after extensive discussions with Pawel Zabczyk during, and following, Farmer’s visit, as Senior Houblon-Norman Fellow to the Bank of England in 2013. An earlier version appeared as NBER Working Paper 22135, and CPER Discussion Paper 11196.
Some Older Unpublished Papers
Last updated 05/09/2016. The Great Depression . This is a working paper version of material from mybook, Expectations Employment and Prices. It uses a search model of the labor market to provide a micro-founded interpretation of Keynes' explanation of the Great Depression.
Last updated 09/21/2006. A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models. Joint with Andreas Beyer, ECB working paper #586, February 2006. We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models.
Last updated 09/05/2006. Shooting the Auctioneer. Joint with Andrew Hollenhorst. This paper uses a relatively standard DSGE model with sticky wages to account for labor market facts. Using a second-order approximation to the policy function we simulate moments of an artificial economy with and without sticky wages. We compute the welfare costs of the sticky wage equilibrium and find them to be small.
On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics. Joint with Andreas Beyer, ECB working paper #323. This is an extension of On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy American Economic Review, 97(1) 2007, pp. 524-529. It generalizes the argument to a class of three equation linear models. A version of the working paper is published in Macroeconomics Dynamics 12, S1, 2008 pp 60-74 under the title What we Don't Know about The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and why we Don't Know it”.
Business Cycles with Heterogeneous Agents. May 2002. This is part of a project that studies the implications of long-lived stochastic overlapping generations models. The main contribution of the paper is a method for solving these models in closed form. I haven't revised the paper in a while although it is still on my agenda.
Fiscal Policy, Equity Premia and Heterogeneous Agents, May 2002. This paper explores the equity premium puzzle in a long-lived agent model and it argues that market incompleteness can be captured by rapid change in the traders who participate in the equity markets.
Last Updated 12-01-2018